Well, Iraq holds elections tomorrow. Nobody much seems to be fooling themselves that these elections will bring about freedom for the Iraqi people. There are exceptions (what is he smoking?), but for the most part there is no triumphalism even coming from the war-bloggers and the administration's staff media pundits.

I would love to see freedom in Iraq (and in China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Russia,...), and I'm optimistic that someday the world will move radically in that direction. But we are rapidly approaching the time when we, as a country, are going to have to face up to the fact that freedom cannot be imposed by force of arms, especially when the people who are giving the orders never had any plan (or desire?) to bring freedom.

After the elections tomorrow, and the inauguration of the new government in Iraq, there will be a great opportunity to see peace and relative freedom in a nation that has been living under constant terrorist threat for the last two years. That opportunity will not belong to anyone on this side of the Atlantic Ocean. It will belong to the new Iraqi government - no matter how legitimate or illegitimate that government may be. It isn't likely that the newly elected government will have the vision, courage, and patriotism to do it. More likely, they will be looking to advance their own interests, and those of their ethnic cousins, at the expense of ethnic minorities there. More likely they will not wish to give up the advantage of having the might of the U.S. military machine tentatively at their disposal. But, the chance remains.

The first step (assuming those elected are Shi'a), is to reach out to the Sunnis and Kurds, offering generous administrative positions and diplomatic agreements to buy their good will. The second step, also during the week of inauguration, will be to very publicly and very vocally ask the United States to immediately withdraw its military presence, and request security assistance from Lebanon, Jordan, and Morocco until the security situation can be stabilized. This should not long, as there will no longer be much motive for violence or civil war, and security force training can proceed without serious threats. The last step is to publicly demand cash money from the Coalition for war reparations. This is the only step where westerners will have much ability to help. The Coalition may cooperate, and the the rest of the west may pressure us to, or not. To the extent that reparations are paid, the ability of Iraq to rebuild itself in the wake of a disastrous war will be enhanced.

At this point, life should return to something approaching normal for most Iraqis, and the future of that nation will rest with its new government. They may choose to enshrine freedom, or they may choose to impose Sharia. They may create a nation better than the one under Saddam, or worse. All of this will happen eventually anyway. The question is how many more innocent lives will be fed into the furnace of war before that happens.

We shouldn't fool ourselves that elections tomorrow will miraculously create freedom in Iraq, but we can acknowledge that they do present an opportunity, and hope for the best outcome.

Update: Since I wrote the above, I've come across Darksyd's eloquent appeal for gratitude to and soldiarity with those who have risked everything to make the elections possible, and those others who will risk everything to participate in them. The deck may be stacked against them, but they do deserve our respect and admiration. They certainly have mine.