January 30, 2006

Links and an Answer with Your Eye Boogers

from - smijer

Bush endorses John Kerry's Iran plan... sort of.

Alito: chilling, indeed

Big Kudos to BB & T - the perfect response to KELO. Unfortunately, thousands of other financiers won't be so principled. (possible hat tip: Say Uncle... actual hat tip: my friend D.S.)

"Hey, this Wiki stuff is cool! Hit delete!"

She don't think it's legal, neither.

And now, what All Three of you have been waiting for! The answer to Friday's puzzle is (drum roll please...)

A. She increases her chances of winning. For a while, my little pea-brain insisted that the answer was C. After all, with two doors the chances should be 50/50, right? Well, yes - unless someone who knows what's behind them is giving you a hint... How does the host give you a hint? Through statistics. You see, on the contestant's original guess, she had a 1/3 chance of choosing correctly - meaning she had 2/3 chance of choosing wrongly. Now, if she chose wrongly, then the host, when opening a door has no choice - he cannot open her door, and he cannot open the door with the prize behind it. So, he can only open the remaining wrong door. By doing so, the only door still closed is the door with the prize, so - if she has chosen wrongly - choosing that one will be a 100% winner. If she chose correctly on her first guess, then choosing either of the other doors is a 100% loser. As we saw earlier, her initial guess is right 1/3 of the time, and wrong 2/3 of the time. That means that changing her guess will ensure victory 2/3 of the time, while it will ensure loss 1/3 of the time. In that way, changing her guess doubles her chance of winning. And the game show host will doubtlessly seethe that he was forced to help her stack those odds.

Enjoy you Monday.

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Posted by smijer at January 30, 2006 07:35 AM
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